Stock-to-Flow Model
Scarcity-based valuation model for Bitcoin and Monero
LIVE
Current S2F
120.9
Gold: 62 | Silver: 22
Model Price
$905.0K
Based on S2F regression
Deviation
-90%
Below model
Circulating Supply
19.86M
Max: 21M
Next Halving: Halving 5 (est)
Block reward: 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
794 days
21 hours remaining
BTC Price vs Stock-to-Flow Model
Stock-to-Flow Comparison
| Asset | S2F Ratio | Annual Inflation | Years to Double | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 120.9 | ~0.85% | ~120 years | Post-2024 halving |
| Monero (XMR) | 118.6 | ~0.86% | ~116 years | Tail emission (constant) |
| Gold | 62 | ~1.6% | ~62 years | Mining limited by cost |
| Silver | 22 | ~4.5% | ~22 years | Industrial demand affects supply |
Understanding Stock-to-Flow
What is Stock-to-Flow?
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) is a ratio that measures scarcity. It compares the existing supply (stock) to the annual production (flow). Higher S2F = more scarce.
S2F = Circulating Supply / Annual Production
Model Price = e^(3.32 × ln(S2F) + 14.6)
Model Price = e^(3.32 × ln(S2F) + 14.6)
Model Limitations
- • S2F only considers supply, not demand
- • Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
- • Model deviation can persist for extended periods
- • External factors (regulation, adoption) matter
BTC vs XMR
BTC has halvings (discrete jumps in S2F), while XMR has constant tail emission (gradually increasing S2F). Both approach similar scarcity levels long-term.
Bitcoin Halving History
Genesis
50 BTC
Jan 2009
Block 0
Halving 1
25 BTC
Nov 2012
Block 210,000
Halving 2
12.5 BTC
Jul 2016
Block 420,000
Halving 3
6.25 BTC
May 2020
Block 630,000
Halving 4
3.125 BTC
Apr 2024
Block 840,000
Halving 5 (est)
1.5625 BTC
Apr 2028
Block 1,050,000